Abstract

"The Decline and Fall of the Horse"

Matthew Lowenstein, Hoover Institution (matthew.lowenstein@gmail.com)

This paper studies the rise and fall of horse populations throughout the globe, with a particular focus on the United States, East Asia, and Europe. It shows how economic changes led to gradually rising populations, as human societies' increased need for horsepower in agriculture, manufacturing, war, and long-distance trade and communication fueled higher demand for horses. At the same time, technological progress enabled humans to sustain larger and larger horse populations by increasing agricultural output and lowering the cost of housing, feeding, and caring for draft animals. Ironically, the industrial revolution enabled horse populations to rise to never-before seen levels--right before prompting their rapid demise. With the invention of the internal combustion engine, the advent of mechanized transportation and industrial manufacturing technology obviated the need for horses in economic and military affairs. Horses were no longer an essential form of capital needed by farmers, generals, and manufacturers, but rather a luxury item enjoyed by wealthy enthusiasts and devoted hobbyists. The result was a permanent resetting of demand for horses, rolling bankruptcies in horse-related industries, and ultimately cratering horse populations. The paper ends with a warning for what the sad fate of horses can tell us about the future of humanity. By combining classical Marxist theory with new theory coming out of research into Artificial Intelligence, it asks how AI may present humans with perils similar to that which industrialization posed to the equus. As human competence is increasingly surpassed by computers, what is to become of the homo sapien?