Abstract

"(Un-)Persistent Conflict? The Effects of First Globalization Coffee Boom in Colombia"

Daniel Sanchez Ordonez, Paris School of Economics (d.sanchez.ordonez@psemail.eu)

This paper examines the determinants and persistence of civil conflict using a new
municipality-level dataset from Colombia covering the nineteenth century through the mid-
twentieth century civil war, La Violencia (1948–1965). I combine newly digitized archival
records on violent deaths, historical coffee production, and political and demographic charac-
teristics to study how economic shocks shape the geography and intensity of conflict over
time. The analysis centers on the First Globalization period, when a coffee export boom real-
located production across space, shifting the agricultural frontier. While the incidence of civil
conflict is widespread and persistent across Colombian history, I document that the intensity
of violence during La Violencia shifted sharply toward new coffee-producing regions. I show
that coffee cultivation generated highly appropriable rents, which enabled the emergence
and persistence of economic banditry. Municipalities with greater coffee production hosted
more bandit leaders and larger bandit groups, sustaining higher levels of violence during the
conflict. These findings provide new evidence on the economic origins of civil conflict and
contribute to debates on persistence by showing how large commodity shocks can overturn
historical patterns, reshaping both the location and mechanisms of violence over time.